Waterloo Regional Airport Expansion

There are two major costs with the airport expansion that I feel is far from being justified at this time.  One taxpayers’ money and untaggable Environmental losses undisturbed carbon soaking wet lands. Wetlands that have been here longer than settlement. Just this week sever news stories have been aired on how studies around the world a showing air travel is on the decline and becoming out of fashion. The way the industry operates now has way too high a carbon footprint. It will have to change drastically to get travel numbers back. Note non of the numbers I have read or heard about consider Covid 19 declines.  I have intentional avoided covid 19 information and only looked at pre-Covid info.  Covid just adds a greater degree of uncertainty.  

Environment will be a huge impact.  There are two wetland complexes on either end of the of runway 14-32 that will be destroyed.  One of which is the Kossuth Bog Complex.  This wet land is undisturbed. A wooded wetland bog complex ecosystem that has NOT been farmed or clear cut before. As largely undisturbed it hosts a broad range of plant and wildlife species native and now rare or endangered in this area.  The Kossuth bog is listed as an Ontario Significant Wetland Complex.  Universities have used it to research rare native plants and animals. Hard to find elsewhere in the region or Ontario. An estimated 12 hectares will be affected with the removal of up to mature 2000 trees. They have already removed 130 mature tress this last year to keep the current flight path clear.  There is little mention of the Kossuth Bog in the reports, but the Airport has already notified the landowners of the pending tree removal for expansion.  Remember this is a Protected wetland complex.  Labeled a complex because the tree’s, grasses, plants, insects, animals, and water all interact. Removal of one will lead the loss of the rest.  Some of species at risk and of concern include Bobolink, Eastern Meadowlark and Blanding’s Turtle Eastern Wood-Pewee, Wood Thrush, Grasshopper Sparrow and Snapping Turtle, as well as the migrating birds using these wetlands to rest and feed for the rest of the journey.

From the reading and conversations, I have had. This expansion is to grow the airport and increase passenger traffic.  A larger terminal is already being design at a cost of $500,000.  The main reason the region has said for this expansion is because of the high number of redirects to YKF. Redirects are flights sent to another airport as they can not land at the destination airport.  Asking the management, it seem hard to get a number real number.  Maybe 10 per year.  Gov Canada CADORS stats say 3 over 10 years.  Reports show that air travel has been on a decline worldwide pre COVID.  2016 145000 though YKF dropping ever since to 80000 in 2019.  Business travel is especially low.  Pre-Covid business air travel was falling as online meeting platforms were becoming more accepted.  Covid has really show less need for business travel leaving those numbers unlikely to climb again. The Airport master plan states that these expansions would happing if passenger numbers reached 250,000.  The master plan is also based on data from 2016 and older. Coming out of COVID we have no idea what the numbers will be. The travel industry has been clear it will be a long slow recovery. As for preferred airports to help take the load away from Toronto.  Hamilton is number one and is already doing so.  Once Pickering comes online to is set to take up the rest.  Not leaving a lot for us.  The question here is regardless of anything else is this expansion worth millions of dollars when the demand is not there and may not come. 

Noise issue.  This one is a bit of marketing.  In looking into this I learned that the noise profile and effects are all based on buildings and their insulation.  So a small to moderate increase in the noise report.  Means inside with windows and doors closed. Effectively how it effects the occupant’s sleep.  Not at your backyard birthday party or BBQ outside.  If these studies are based on current building codes for insulation it will be quite loud outside.  A lot of homes in the area directly under the flight path are old and insulation is not to todays standard.  So, they will be greatly affected by the noise. 

Another factor that is not been discussed that I have experienced firsthand is the fall out for larger air craft.  In the past I have worked in Mississauga directly under one of the runways of Pearson International YYZ. Park a clean car there for just 6 hours and come out to a dark gritty dust.  Not the other office a few blocks away and closer to the 401 this is not noticeable.  It is just directly under the flight path.  Will this be our fate if high numbers of larger airplanes go over our area?  What are the real health hazards to this fallout?  I did some quick searching for any intel on the vacant buildings in Mississauga from early 2000’s. In particular a Canada post facility that was empty.  Staff at the site I was working said Canada post moved due to health issues related to the dust.  Is there any way this can be looked into and or mitigated.

Environment is not the only concern with the expansion.   The question is should the spending of our taxpayer’s money be happening now? Is it justified?  Is the growth the Proponent predicting still 10 to 30+ years away? If at all. Considering the Airport master plan has certain triggers we have no hit yet to start this process.

Looking a pre COVID. Industry, research, and federal studies as recent as 2016 do not support the proposed demand.  The Airport master plan projections are not even close stating 250000 passengers pers year by 2021.  Instead dropping off 40000 since 2016 to 80,000 passengers per year.

The use of Waterloo or Hamilton airport as a relief or secondary to Pearson has been studied more then once over the years. Both studies and the aviation operators have shot it down. To the point that it unlikely to be reconsidered.  In stead a deficiency in services is recognised on the east side of Toronto. A site purchased buy the federal government to build the Pickering airport. This airport is to start construction phases in the next 10 years. It is staged to take over the e-commerce freight and specialty services from Pearson. Allowing even more growth at Pearson to expand passenger and other services even further. These two airports will likely operate under the same governing management. Saving costs and redundant services.

The master plans states Pearson is congested. Not necessarily accurate. it is expanding now and has room to do so for decades.  Pearson’s purchase of adjacent lands has also help ensure this. I ran across this statement about Pearson.” Busy airports, to the untrained eye, appear to be congested airports, but to those who operate and manage them as well as pilots of large passenger and cargo planes flying in and out of them, these airports are simply that- busy, not congested”.  Pearson is only the 30^th busy airport in the world. Passing some 50,000,000 passengers efficiently.

Waterloo regional airport has a lot of overlap in its catchment basin with other airports that already offering services that the plan hopes to attract.  Hamilton, Pearson. London the main three. The secondary catchment area suggests passengers coming as far as south of Windsor. Hard to believe when London and Windsor airports are there with a lot of the services in place.

Technology in the aviation industry is also going to play a roll now and over the next few years.  Airlines are favouring smaller aircraft over larger aircraft.   Air Canada is retiring there 767’s instead using the more efficient Boeing 220c to name one instance.  Newer engines and air frames along with increased range of smaller planes are verry attractive to the industry. Why regularly fly a less then half full large plane when you can run a full smaller plane with less cost. These smaller planes can land on Waterloo’s current runways now.

Covering the cost is mentioned in the Airport Master Plan.  It mentions Provincial and Federal funding may be possible.  That is a bit like buying a lottery ticket.  It is more likely that if any funding is available to aviation it will be directed to the northern airports the service the far north communities. Supply lines to the remote places that are already struggling.  Leaving Waterloo Region taxpayers footing the bill. 

I struggle to see that currently the runway and terminal expansion time is now.  Should we not see higher passenger numbers or serious interest and demand first.  World wide the aviation industry will have to adapt to more efficient technologies and lower their environmental impact in order to attract higher numbers of traveler again.  Business travel will never rebound with so many already experiencing the massive saving of online virtual meetings and collaboration tools allowing projects to be worked on live in really time all around the world.  Using this technology also helps businesses be greener and not add to a carbon footprint by flying every were.

The cost to the environment is far too high to justify this expansion.  Especially if the industry over the next years end up with new smaller more efficient planes that do not need long runways to land in any weather.  Net zero is a marketing term that means nothing like it says.  You can not take a 200 year old tree from a wetland and flood a grass land some were else to plant it. New trees are great to plant anyways but they will not host the species lost in the original location. Building a new wet land does not replace an ancient one.  Migrating species will have no way of knowing were to go. Look at the Massasuaga Rattle Snakes along the Kings highway 400N.  They tried moving them and none of the move snakes survived.  Highway project managers had to route the highway around the rattle snake’s prime areas. Putt fencing to keep them off the road and build tunnels for snakes and other species of the ecosystem to cross and still get to other areas.   If Net zero worked, they would have just relocated those Bogs and wetlands that Massasuaga rattle snake calls home some were else.  They tried and it failed.  What ever happens it has to happen in a way the Provincially protected Wetlands Kossuth Bog Complex in not disturbed or not at all.